PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
Our model puts a PSV Eindhoven win at 89.3% in this Eredivisie fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.44 to 0.48.
The ratings gap
PSV Eindhoven carry a rating of 1771 against 1420 for Willem II, a gap of 352 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, PSV Eindhoven's attack should find room against Willem II's defence, by 353 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
PSV Eindhoven are off their season peak
PSV Eindhoven peaked at 1830 this season and sit at 1771 today, 58 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Willem II struggles to hit the target: 28% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
PSV Eindhoven take 20.2 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 91.9%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.