Port Vale vs Rochdale
Our model puts a Port Vale win at 60.2% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.84 to 0.85.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Rochdale at 4.2, which implies about 23.8%. Our model has it at 17.2% — 6.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Port Vale are off their season peak
Port Vale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1444 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Port Vale struggles to hit the target: 28.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.