Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town
Our model puts an Oldham Athletic win at 56.8% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 0.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Oldham Athletic carry a rating of 1469 against 1361 for Crawley Town, a gap of 108 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Oldham Athletic's attack should find room against Crawley Town's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1361 today, 139 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
84.6% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.