Nice vs Stade Rennais
Our model puts a Stade Rennais win at 41.9% in this Ligue 1 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.47.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Stade Rennais carry a rating of 1727 against 1615 for Nice, a gap of 112 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Stade Rennais's attack should find room against Nice's defence, by 160 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.