New York City FC vs CF Montréal

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 18:00

Win probability

54%

New York City FC wins

24%

Draw

21%

CF Montréal wins

xG Home

1.69

New York City FC

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.96

CF Montréal

Analysis

Our model puts a New York City FC win at 54.3% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 0.96.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1480 against 1464, a gap of 16 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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