Moreirense vs Estrela
Our model puts a Moreirense win at 57.7% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.75 to 0.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
How often they shoot
Moreirense manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
36.4% of Moreirense's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
56.2% of the shots on target Moreirense face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.