Modena vs Mantova
Our model puts a Modena win at 46.4% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1466 against 1469, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Modena's attack should find room against Mantova's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Modena take 14.9 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.