Milton Keynes Dons vs Doncaster Rovers
Our model puts a Milton Keynes Dons win at 49.5% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.01.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1488 against 1485, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Early or late
30.8% of Milton Keynes Dons's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.