Mansfield Town vs Notts County
Our model puts a Mansfield Town win at 53.4% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.65 to 0.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Mansfield Town are hard to beat
Mansfield Town have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Behind the defence
58.3% of the shots on target Notts County face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.