LA Galaxy vs Austin FC

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 21:00

Win probability

53%

LA Galaxy wins

23%

Draw

24%

Austin FC wins

xG Home

1.89

LA Galaxy

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.18

Austin FC

Analysis

Our model puts a LA Galaxy win at 53.4% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.89 to 1.18.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1497 against 1488, a gap of 9 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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