Kifisia vs Olympiacos
Our model puts an Olympiacos win at 62.5% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.78 to 1.86.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Olympiacos carry a rating of 1746 against 1488 for Kifisia, a gap of 259 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Kifisia's attack will struggle to break down Olympiacos's defence, by 197 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Olympiacos are on a run
Olympiacos arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Kifisia collect 3.3 cards a match, on 16 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
81.8% of Kifisia's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.