Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 17:45

Win probability

45%

Heerenveen wins

26%

Draw

29%

NEC Nijmegen wins

xG Home

1.46

Heerenveen

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.11

NEC Nijmegen

Analysis

Our model puts a Heerenveen win at 45% in this Eredivisie fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.11.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, NEC Nijmegen's attack should find room against Heerenveen's defence, by 168 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export