FC Juárez vs Querétaro

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

26%

FC Juárez wins

23%

Draw

51%

Querétaro wins

xG Home

1.25

FC Juárez

Blowout %

26%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.86

Querétaro

Analysis

Our model puts a Querétaro win at 51.3% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.86.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

FC Juárez are off their season peak

FC Juárez peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1451 today, 49 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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