FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
Our model puts a Philadelphia Union win at 37.3% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.39.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1507 against 1532, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Philadelphia Union's attack should find room against FC Cincinnati's defence, by 107 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.