FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
Our model puts a SC Freiburg win at 39.9% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.44.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price SC Freiburg at 2.1, which implies about 47.6%. Our model has it at 39.9% — 7.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, SC Freiburg's attack should find room against FC Augsburg's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
FC Augsburg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 41.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
FC Augsburg take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.