Coventry City vs Sunderland
Our model puts a Sunderland win at 44% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.54.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Sunderland carry a rating of 1706 against 1593 for Coventry City, a gap of 113 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Finding the target
Coventry City hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
51% of the shots on target Sunderland face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.