Charlotte FC vs Orlando City SC

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 17:00

Win probability

41%

Charlotte FC wins

24%

Draw

35%

Orlando City SC wins

xG Home

1.61

Charlotte FC

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.46

Orlando City SC

Analysis

Our model puts a Charlotte FC win at 41.1% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.61 to 1.46.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1512 against 1513, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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