Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Our model puts a Borussia Mönchengladbach win at 47.1% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.55 to 1.12.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.87, which implies about 53.5%. Our model has it at 47.1% — 6.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1602 against 1605, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack should find room against SC Paderborn 07's defence, by 104 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Borussia Mönchengladbach collect 3.4 cards a match, on 11.5 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.