Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Our model puts a Bayern Munich win at 71.5% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.28 to 0.74.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Bayern Munich carry a rating of 2013 against 1832 for Borussia Dortmund, a gap of 181 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayern Munich's attack should find room against Borussia Dortmund's defence, by 363 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayern Munich are hard to beat
Bayern Munich have gone 14 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Bayern Munich are off their season peak
Bayern Munich peaked at 2069 this season and sit at 2013 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Bayern Munich hits the target more often than almost anyone: 41% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Bayern Munich take 22.8 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
70% of Borussia Dortmund's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 20 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
77.3% of the shots on target Borussia Dortmund face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 71.6%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.