Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 60.3% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.82 to 0.84.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price VfB Stuttgart at 3.6, which implies about 27.8%. Our model has it at 17% — 10.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Bayer Leverkusen carry a rating of 1850 against 1741 for VfB Stuttgart, a gap of 109 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayer Leverkusen's attack should find room against VfB Stuttgart's defence, by 176 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayer Leverkusen are on a run
Bayer Leverkusen arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 8 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
VfB Stuttgart are off their season peak
VfB Stuttgart peaked at 1787 this season and sit at 1741 today, 46 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Bayer Leverkusen take 19.9 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.