Annecy vs Montpellier
Our model puts an Annecy win at 44.3% in this Ligue 2 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.45 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1520 against 1496, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Finding the target
Montpellier hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.5% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Annecy manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
33.3% of Annecy's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
79.6% of the shots on target Montpellier face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.