Albacete vs CD Sabadell

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

52%

Albacete wins

24%

Draw

24%

CD Sabadell wins

xG Home

1.71

Albacete

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

CD Sabadell

Analysis

Our model puts an Albacete win at 52.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.71 to 1.07.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1507 against 1515, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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