AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Our model puts an AFC Bournemouth win at 52.8% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.63 to 0.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Leeds United at 3.35, which implies about 29.9%. Our model has it at 22.3% — 7.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Bournemouth's attack should find room against Leeds United's defence, by 102 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AFC Bournemouth are on a run
AFC Bournemouth arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
41.2% of AFC Bournemouth's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.