SV Elversberg vs Mainz
Our model puts a Mainz win at 48.2% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.62.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Mainz carry a rating of 1693 against 1587 for SV Elversberg, a gap of 106 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mainz's attack should find room against SV Elversberg's defence, by 168 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
SV Elversberg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 41.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
40.9% of Mainz's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.