Stade Laval vs Boulogne
Our model puts a Stade Laval win at 38.5% in this Ligue 2 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.29.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1457 against 1437, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Boulogne are off their season peak
Boulogne peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1437 today, 63 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Boulogne manage 8.5 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
75% of Boulogne's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 8 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.