Sheffield United vs Wrexham
Our model puts a Sheffield United win at 47.9% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Wrexham at 2.75, which implies about 36.4%. Our model has it at 26% — 10.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1550 against 1564, a gap of 14 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sheffield United's attack should find room against Wrexham's defence, by 90 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Sheffield United collect 3.2 cards a match, on 10.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
71.4% of Sheffield United's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
59.1% of the shots on target Wrexham face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.