Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Our model puts a Nantes win at 59.2% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.87 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Nantes are off their season peak
Nantes peaked at 1573 this season and sit at 1518 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.