Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense

Friday, 30 October 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

33%

Grêmio wins

24%

Draw

43%

Athletico Paranaense wins

xG Home

1.39

Grêmio

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.62

Athletico Paranaense

Analysis

Our model puts an Athletico Paranaense win at 42.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.62.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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