Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum
Our model puts an Energie Cottbus win at 46.9% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.51 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price VfL Bochum at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 27.3% — 19.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1568 against 1546, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
VfL Bochum collect 3.4 cards a match, on 13.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.