Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Our model puts a Sporting CP win at 63.7% in this Primeira Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.81 to 1.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Sporting CP carry a rating of 1769 against 1493 for Casa Pia, a gap of 275 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sporting CP's attack should find room against Casa Pia's defence, by 238 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Sporting CP are hard to beat
Sporting CP have gone 28 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Finding the target
Casa Pia struggles to hit the target: 27.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Sporting CP hits the target more often than almost anyone: 43.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Sporting CP take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Sporting CP collect 3.8 cards a match, on 11.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
58% of the shots on target Casa Pia face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.