Xerez vs Cádiz
Our model puts a Cádiz win at 41.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.41.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Cádiz's attack should find room against Xerez's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Xerez are off their season peak
Xerez peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1423 today, 77 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cádiz collect 3.8 cards a match, on 12.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
75% of Cádiz's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 20 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.