Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 23:00

Win probability

30%

Vasco da Gama wins

25%

Draw

44%

Flamengo wins

xG Home

1.21

Vasco da Gama

Blowout %

21%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.52

Flamengo

Analysis

Our model puts a Flamengo win at 44.3% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.52.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Flamengo are hard to beat

Flamengo have gone 12 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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