UB Lebrijana vs Getafe
Our model puts a Getafe win at 58.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.12 to 2.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Getafe carry a rating of 1626 against 1510 for UB Lebrijana, a gap of 116 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, UB Lebrijana's attack will struggle to break down Getafe's defence, by 133 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Getafe struggles to hit the target: 27% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Getafe collect 4 cards a match, on 14 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
75.9% of the shots on target Getafe face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.