Sporting Hortaleza vs Sevilla
Our model puts a Sevilla win at 63% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.9 to 2.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,202 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.2% of the time — 412 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Sevilla collect 3.5 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
72.2% of Sevilla's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.