San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids

Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 02:30

Win probability

48%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

25%

Draw

28%

Colorado Rapids wins

xG Home

1.62

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.16

Colorado Rapids

Analysis

Our model puts a San Jose Earthquakes win at 47.6% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.62 to 1.16.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1497 against 1490, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.10

San Jose Earthquakes

3.55

Draw

3.05

Colorado Rapids

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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