Ribadesella vs Racing Santander
Our model puts a Racing Santander win at 58.4% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.09 to 2.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Racing Santander carry a rating of 1610 against 1505 for Ribadesella, a gap of 105 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Racing Santander's attack should find room against Ribadesella's defence, by 160 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.