Numancia vs Real Oviedo
Our model puts a Numancia win at 37.9% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.1% of the time — 883 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Real Oviedo collect 3.5 cards a match, on 14 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
57.7% of the shots on target Numancia face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.