Guijuelo vs Sporting Gijón
Our model puts a Sporting Gijón win at 61.2% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.06 to 2.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Sporting Gijón are on a run
Sporting Gijón arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.