Chicago Fire FC vs Orlando City SC
Our model puts a Chicago Fire FC win at 46.2% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.78 to 1.41.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Chicago Fire FC at 1.59, which implies about 62.9%. Our model has it at 46.2% — 16.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1515 against 1513, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Orlando City SC's attack should find room against Chicago Fire FC's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.