Bahia vs São Paulo
Our model puts a Bahia win at 52.7% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.74 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price São Paulo at 3.35, which implies about 29.9%. Our model has it at 23.4% — 6.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1507 against 1481, a gap of 26 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.