Atlético Calatayud vs Osasuna
Our model puts an Osasuna win at 61.4% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.93 to 1.98.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Osasuna carry a rating of 1661 against 1500 for Atletico Calatayud, a gap of 161 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Osasuna's attack should find room against Atlético Calatayud's defence, by 162 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
53.6% of the shots on target Osasuna face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.