AE Prat vs Athletic Club
Our model puts an Athletic Club win at 62.9% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.92 to 2.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Athletic Club carry a rating of 1689 against 1509 for AE Prat, a gap of 180 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AE Prat's attack will struggle to break down Athletic Club's defence, by 135 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Athletic Club are off their season peak
Athletic Club peaked at 1746 this season and sit at 1689 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Athletic Club struggles to hit the target: 28.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Athletic Club take 15.3 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
72.7% of Athletic Club's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.