Xerez vs Cádiz
Our model puts a Cádiz win at 40% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.37.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Xerez are off their season peak
Xerez peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1425 today, 75 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cádiz collect 3.7 cards a match, on 12.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
70.6% of Cádiz's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.