Tavernes de la Valldigna vs Valencia
Our model puts a Valencia win at 69.7% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.83 to 2.31.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Valencia carry a rating of 1665 against 1500 for Tavernes de la Valldigna, a gap of 165 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tavernes de la Valldigna's attack will struggle to break down Valencia's defence, by 111 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Valencia are off their season peak
Valencia peaked at 1716 this season and sit at 1665 today, 50 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Valencia struggles to hit the target: 25.5% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
75% of Valencia's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.