SSV Jeddeloh II vs Hertha Berlin
Our model puts a Hertha Berlin win at 60.5% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.03 to 2.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Hertha Berlin are hard to beat
Hertha Berlin have gone 10 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Early or late
81.2% of Hertha Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.