SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Our model puts a VfB Stuttgart win at 47.8% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.54.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
VfB Stuttgart carry a rating of 1741 against 1605 for SC Paderborn 07, a gap of 136 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, VfB Stuttgart's attack should find room against SC Paderborn 07's defence, by 218 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
VfB Stuttgart are off their season peak
VfB Stuttgart peaked at 1787 this season and sit at 1741 today, 46 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.