Parma vs Udinese
Our model puts a Parma win at 42.5% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Udinese at 2.35, which implies about 42.6%. Our model has it at 30.9% — 11.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1604 against 1609, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Udinese are off their season peak
Udinese peaked at 1654 this season and sit at 1609 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
80% of Parma's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.