Monza vs Napoli
Our model puts a Napoli win at 56.4% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.01 to 1.85.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Napoli carry a rating of 1760 against 1526 for Monza, a gap of 235 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Napoli's attack should find room against Monza's defence, by 222 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Monza hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Monza take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
38.9% of Napoli's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
79.5% of the shots on target Napoli face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.