IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården
Our model puts a Djurgården win at 51.4% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.83.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Djurgardens IF carry a rating of 1564 against 1469 for IFK Goteborg, a gap of 95 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.