Holstein Kiel vs TSG Hoffenheim
Our model puts a TSG Hoffenheim win at 50.3% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.98 to 1.55.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
TSG Hoffenheim carry a rating of 1672 against 1536 for Holstein Kiel, a gap of 136 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, TSG Hoffenheim's attack should find room against Holstein Kiel's defence, by 284 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
TSG Hoffenheim are off their season peak
TSG Hoffenheim peaked at 1720 this season and sit at 1672 today, 48 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
TSG Hoffenheim take 15.9 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Holstein Kiel collect 3.7 cards a match, on 13.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
37.5% of TSG Hoffenheim's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
56.4% of the shots on target TSG Hoffenheim face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.